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Kinetic Models of Zika Virus and Evaluation of Effect of Human Intervention |
WANG Zhiqi, GUO Zuiyuan, WANG Xiuhong |
College of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang, 110168, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze of the pattern of spread of the Zika virus between populations and media, and evaluateg the effect of human intervention on the epidemics .Methods A kineticmodel of infectious diseases was established, followed by numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis of model parameters .Results Some factors, such as the number of infectious aedes, reproduction rate of aedes, effective contact rate were positively correlated with the number of patients. The effective contact rate was an important determinant of the severity of the epidemic..Conclusion Personal protection, environmental improvement, large-scale eradication of mosquitoes, and prevention of imported cases can help prevent and control the epidemic of the Zika fever.
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Published: 02 November 2016
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